Editorial丨Biden out of the picture in Middle East（微信文章未删减版）

主要观点总结

本文分析了美国总统拜登与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡之间的电话交谈，并探讨了中东危机背后的利益交换。文章指出内塔尼亚胡对巴勒斯坦问题的漠然态度，以及拜登试图通过承认地区变化来影响以色列的策略。然而，双方在以色列兼并巴勒斯坦的问题上存在分歧，引发拜登政府的不满。同时，尽管存在谈判解决冲突的迹象，但双方尚未达成任何实际协议。文章还指出以色列和哈马斯在核心问题上的立场并未改变，而拜登政府需要意识到内塔尼亚胡内阁将无视美国的支持来推行其计划。

关键观点总结

关键观点1: 美国总统拜登与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的电话交谈中，内塔尼亚胡对巴勒斯坦问题的漠然态度显而易见。

内塔尼亚胡感谢拜登对以色列的支持，但这也被认为是间接拒绝了拜登的停火呼吁。

关键观点2: 拜登试图通过承认中东地区的局势变化来影响以色列的策略，并敦促内塔尼亚胡认识到局势已经发生了根本变化。

这包括对黎巴嫩停火协议、叙利亚阿萨德政权倒台以及伊朗在该地区影响力的削弱等的认可。

关键观点3: 双方在以色列为兼并巴勒斯坦采取的行动上存在分歧。

内塔尼亚胡政府的行动引发了拜登政府的不满，因为拜登认为美国与以色列的使命已经完成。

关键观点4: 尽管存在谈判解决冲突的迹象，但双方尚未达成任何实际协议。

尽管以色列的情报机构和拜登的中东顾问都在卡塔尔进行谈判，但双方仍面临核心问题上的分歧。

关键观点5: 以色列和哈马斯在核心问题上的立场未改变。

双方都没有在核心问题上做出有意义的让步，这使得达成任何协议变得更加困难。

正文

Even in the readout issued by the White House on US President Joe Biden's telephone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, the latter's indifference to the plight of the Palestinians is evident.

After the outgoing US leader made his points about the immediate need for a ceasefire and a surge in humanitarian aid to the enclave, Netanyahu simply "thanked the President for his lifelong support of Israel and for the extraordinary support from the United States for Israel's security and national defense".

That thank-you note can be taken as not only a Dear John message, but also an indirect rebuff of Biden's enough-is-enough call.

▲ This combination of pictures created on January 12, 2025 shows US President Joe Biden speaking in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on January 3, 2025 and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking during a press conference in Jerusalem on December 9, 2024. Photo/Agencies

To sell his points, Biden urged Netanyahu to recognize "the fundamentally changed regional circumstances following the ceasefire deal in Lebanon, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and the weakening of Iran's power in the region" in a bid to comfort Tel Aviv that these "achievements", as Washington obviously thinks, suffice for its closest ally in the Middle East to stop fighting.

That, to a certain extent, serves to provide some clues on the exchange of interests between Washington and Tel Aviv in the Middle East crisis ostensibly initiated by Hamas' attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023.

Hamas' attack was undoubtedly a tragedy for Israel and the region. But it provided the opportunity for Netanyahu and Biden to escape some of the domestic pressure they were under.

That explains why the two could so easily reach a tacit understanding to scratch each other's back after the Hamas' attack on Israel, with Israel doing the dirty work as the US' hatchet man to advance their common agenda targeting Iran.

But the Netanyahu government going off the US script in seeking to annex the Palestinian enclave has irked the Biden administration.

So since Biden thinks the US-Israel mission has largely been accomplished, he doesn't see any gain in the latter stubbornly pressing ahead with its own Gaza plan, which has no marginal benefits at all but instead become a negative property to their alliance.

Netanyahu on the other hand believes the US has made a comparatively small input in realizing its objectives with regard to Iran, which should be attributed to Israel's successful military operations. So the US is obliged to support its Gaza campaign, even if the US doesn't benefit from it directly.

So while the readout said the two leaders discussed the ongoing negotiations in Doha for a ceasefire and hostage release deal based on the May 27, 2024, arrangement described by the US last year and endorsed unanimously by the UN Security Council, the zeal for a deal is only on the US side.

Even if the director of Israel's Mossad foreign intelligence agency, David Barnea, and Biden's top Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk, are both in the Qatari capital of Doha, a sign many believe indicates a breakthrough is on the cards, a real deal remains tantalizingly elusive.

Biden's national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, also told CNN's "State of the Union", that he would not predict whether a deal can be reached by Jan 20, the day of the inauguration. "We are very, very close," he said. "Yet being very close still means we're far, because until you actually get across the finish line, we're not there."

Fundamentally, neither Israel nor Hamas has made meaningful concessions on core issues as the former's aim of eliminating the latter remains unchanged, while Hamas insists on Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, which Tel Aviv refuses to do.

The Biden administration should be well aware that the Netanyahu Cabinet will now effectively ignore it, as it has already been assured that it can count on the next US administration supporting its land grab.